Labour's prospects look bleak for the next general election. The government appears to be drifting; buffeted by issues rather than leading a dedicated agenda requiring continued support when polling day arrives.
It must draw the agenda onto a policy platform that emphasises the difference between the major parties. The issue must be radical and long-term to secure support for an area requiring action beyond the election.
This issue is adult social care.
A reform green paper is due out shortly and will make or break Labour's 12 years in government. While social care is an issue that may not lead election strategies, it informs underlying perceptions of political parties.
Care services are relevant to the 'grey' electorate as older voters are more likely to have care needs and are more likely to turn out at the polls. The gender imbalance amongst the care workforce and informal carers also makes it unsurprising that women voters prioritise care issues. And no party has won a general election without a majority of female voters since the voting age was equalised.
The Conservative party has no clear policy agenda on social care, but remains committed to restricting funding for public services overall, which would affect care services. Shadow care service spokesperson, Stephen O'Brien, is unconvinced of social care's importance to voters; he says it 'doesn't affect the postbag' of issues he receives and repeatedly stresses that reform is not a priority, being viewed as too costly.
Local authorities provide care services so perhaps growing Tory dominance in town halls is another factor in O'Brien's thinking.
But this lack of Conservative policy is generally immaterial to voters wishing to punish Labour for perceived malaise and a whiff of sleaze.
Labour partially set out its stall in a 'vision' for care reform in 2008. The vision emphasised the need: to promote independence, choice and control; to ensure everyone can access support when needed, but with resources focused on people with greater needs; and to be affordable. This vision has not overly enthused stakeholders as it came with a general tone raising suspicions of further restrictions on care at a time services are already severely limited.
Local councils control access to care with an iron grip and have cut support to disabled and older people and their families. Since 1997 around 140,000 people have lost homecare services in England. This is despite the fact that rising numbers of people have care needs, especially older and disabled people. Increasing numbers of carers have to step in to plug the care gap. Women aged 46-64 generally assume greater care roles, though children as young as five also provide substantial levels of support – with some providing 50 hours' support per week.
The overwhelming view of stakeholders is that services are struggling to meet public needs and expectations. The credit crunch has placed greater pressure on reform to be cost-neutral, but more resources are almost universally viewed as essential – only the Conservatives seem unconvinced by academic and other estimates which consistently range between £2bn-£3bn required to meet current needs.
At this stage of an electoral cycle, and with polling demonstrating a healthy Conservative advantage, Labour must grasp the reins and, as the previous care service minister Ivan Lewis urged the prime minister, be bold.
Public awareness of what constitutes social care is low, but surveys conclude that most people believe, erroneously, that care needs will be met on the same basis as the NHS meets health needs. A bold use of public belief and an equivalent ambition to meet modern families' needs and expectations could provide a platform for a significant election battle, especially with differing levels of support being available across the UK.
Labour should create a 'National Care Service' to rival the NHS – not in cost, but in vision, in quality, and through care and support becoming a right all citizens can expect, as we do healthcare. This vision should encapsulate care services within the broader prism of inclusion and equality and end social care being a 'gift' bestowed by councils.
Only such a bold platform can tackle the view that reform will mean greater service cuts and more people denied support. And such a bold platform would end the perception that Labour no longer holds a significant agenda requiring continued electoral support.
Neil Coyle is head of policy at the National Centre for Independent Living
