As alarm grows over a crisis in transport funding, following the decision by National Express to give up its franchise to run the UK east coast rail route, questions are being asked not just about funding decisions, following the next comprehensive spending review, but also about whether the transport department has the right skills to run a nationalised railway.
Details of a potential £30bn transport spending gap have thrown into doubt some of the country's major proposed transport schemes, including delays to the much-delayed cross-London Crossrail project.
The London Assembly transport committee, which published a report on London's rail system in February, has said any failure to invest in rail projects affecting already-overcrowded London routes will be "disastrous".
Although the recession has caused a slowing in the rise in passenger numbers, substantial growth in passengers is still expected in the future and more investment, not less, will be "absolutely critical" to the rail network's ability to cope, according to Val Shawcross, deputy chair of the committee.
But questions are also being asked about the skills within the department for transport as it takes over the running of the east coast rail line from National Express, whose chief executive, Richard Bowker resigned on Tuesday.
Transport expert Christian Wolmar described transport secretary Lord Adonis as "very capable and someone with an eye for detail", who had handled the crisis over National Express very well, but added that there may be an issue about whether transport department civil servants will be well-placed to run rail franchises on a day-to-day basis.
"British Rail was a separate organisation," he pointed out. "It does require an organisation to be staffed by permanent staff, rather than by civil servants who move on every three years."
This may be the case; it is likely that the department will set up a government-run company to take over the east coast franchise.
Only two months ago, Wolmar argued that this is, paradoxically, a good time for railway investment, with a five-year deal setting out Network Rail's plans up to 2014 having been agreed and allowing for some expansion.
But any growth will require "substantial" investment from the government. He argued then that the next few months would be crucial for the railway.
"If the operators manage to ride out the recession without the need for extra government funding, the prognosis is good. However, if they fall into difficulties and seek a bail-out which they are unlikely to obtain, a real crisis in the franchising system will ensue."
Wolmar's words are likely to be ringing round the corridors of the transport department as the permanent secretary, Robert Devereux, and his staff, try and work out how they are going to run a railway, and get some investment into public transport, despite what are likely to be severely limited capital for future projects.
• The Big Squeeze: Rail overcrowding in London, February 2009, London Assembly transport committee http://www.london.gov.uk/view_press_release_a.jsp?releaseid=20777
